by pakistanipoliticalscene

Swot Analysis of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf

 

STRENGTHS

Imran Khan popular among certain group

Can pull crowd

Energetic Leader

Some support from establishment

 

  

 

OPPORTUNITIES

Still time to perform in KPK

Prove his worth and stake a claim to form the government in KPK

Change stance from personal attacks to development and achievements in KPK

Prove worthy of running the government

Walk the talk
WEAKENESSES

Surrounded by turncoats

Imran comes across as fake and opportunist

Arrogant and opportunist

Does not walk the talk

PTI pursues confrontational politics

Uncontrolled rhetoric, based on false information

Not moved an inch from where he was three years ago

Personal attacks without much substance

Appear confused

In party split

Imran Khan Flip Flops

Supporter of Pakistan’s arch enemy TTP

 THREATS

Have lost much of the support from his followers

Leadership vacuum after Imran leaves

May lose it all and become Asghar Khan type party

Loyalists may leave the party leaving for the

Opportunists to take over

Lose miserably in 2018 and go out of existence

Imran khan may be taken out because of his links with  TTP

 

 

 

Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) seems to have lost a golden opportunity to stake its claim for forming the government at the center. Having lost the election on its previous message of routing corruption (which, by the way, it has not done in KPK), PTI continues to push the same rhetoric.To PTI and Imran Khan, everybody else is a crook and he is a saint. Imran Khan is not stable, reacts too quickly to false information and then has to backtrack. He assumes that everybody is a fool and they do not understand his blunders. His biggest weakness is his perceived links with TTP – he is viewed as a supporter of TTP

Not likely to form government in KPK and most likely would win less seats in the next election at the center (between10-15 at best).

by pakistanipoliticalscene

SWOT Analysis of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Group

STRENGTHS

  • Drive to Build Pakistan’s Infrastructure
  • Result Oriented
  • Progress to show
  • Focused leadership
  • Clear objectives and road maps for development
  • High maturity level
  • No major corruption scandal so far
  • Ability to take bold decision
  • One knows what will he get from the party
 OPPORTUNITIES

  • To build much needed        infrastructure
  • Consolidate party position across Provinces
  • Build institutions
  • Create greater goodwill for the party in the country
  • Win next elections

 
WEAKENESSES

  • Cronyism, PM surrounded by cronies
  • Extremely suspicious of army
  • Key ministries vacant
  • No new faces
  • Poor public relations
  • Inability to defend good decisions
  • Lost all ground in Sind due to inept local party members
 THREATS

  • In ability to handle various state actors, Army, Judiciary, political allies
  • Inability of the Sharif Family to come out clean on Panama leaks and money laundering issues
  • Inability to show new look to people
  • Lose Punjab to PPP, with Sind already lost may also lose Govt. at the  Center
  • Leadership vacuum after Nawaz Sharif

Cronyism is the biggest weakness that appear to stem from the fear of others. This impedes ability of Nawaz Sharif to deal effectively with other political parties. Poor public information and some inept Ministers are causing a drag on the party and not enabling it to bear full fruits of their effort. While, PMLN is expected to make the government at the Center, Punjab, Baluchistan, KPK, Gilgit Baltistan, it will have difficulty doing so beyond 2018, unless a transition is made to a new leadership that is perceived to be worthy of carrying the mantle forward

Having said that, with the current momentum and good work towards intiating infrastructure development, PMLN is likely to win the next elections with more seats (about 150) at the center.

by pakistanipoliticalscene

The fate of Salman Butt, Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir

There are two types of people, there are the ones who believe that individuals are bigger than the country and others who believe that the country is bigger than the individuals.

I say this in the context of Rameez Raja’s interview with Geo TV in which he came out a biased arbitrator with regard to comeback of Salman Butt, Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir (The Trio) into international cricket. Personally, I do not regard him highly for his cricketing sense and his abilities as cricket commentator. After listening to his interview at Geo TV, I am convinced that, as an individual, he is biased and low in character.

With regard the Trio, he said that they should not be allowed into international cricket. When asked whether he will object to the trio being selected by any of the PSL Franchises. He replied I’ll see when the time comes – given his earlier rhetoric in the program, he definitely will oppose their return to international cricket.

Now look at the arguments he gave against the Trio:

  • He said that the trio has no remorse and they come into the cricketing field with long hair do and open chested posture
  • They have brought Pakistan into disrepute by their acts and, therefore, should be barred from the cricket
  • The other cricketers don’t feel comfortable with Trio in the team

I believe that all arguments don’t hold water and are not a reflection of an individual who looks at things objectively.

With regard to his first point, why should they show any remorse? They have served their sentence and come out of it with greater zeal to get back into international cricket. They should be considered on their abilities and performance and not somebody’s opinion on their demeanor. Isn’t this the way it should be? If Rameez Raja doesn’t like their demeanor, so be it. That is his problem not theirs.

With regard to the point number 2, we must understand that the individual acts are not a reflection of country’s reputation.  What the Trio did were individual acts, and not as Pakistan. Rameez should understand this simple point.

With regard to the third point, of course some of the other players feel threatened of their place in the team, if they came back. So be it. One cannot have the team hostage to a few players, who may lose their place if the Trio or any one of them comes back into the team.

I support the return of Salman Butt, Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir back into Pakistan and international cricket and they should be given a fair chance. They have served the punishment given to them, which I personally think that was very harsh in any case. Rameez Raja seems to hold a personal grudge against them. This episode clearly shows that Rameez Raja is a prejudiced person and hold grudges against players as well, He may hold personal grudges against others as well.

We should condemn, Rameez, Haroon Rashid and likes for unreasonably lobbying against the Trio in Public and privately. I also demand of PCB to relieve Rameez and Haroon Rashid of any direct or ambassadorial responsibilities for he has shown his personal dislike for certain cricketers.

I also ask of the ICC and the TV channels to relieve Rameez him as a commentator for he is a biased person. His bias against the Trio has no less impact that Dean Jones racial slur.

by pakistanipoliticalscene

Pakistan Political Scene as seen in 2012

PAKISTAN POLITICAL SCENE Political Parties rating MAtrix

The above pieces were written in the context of prevailing Geo political situation in 2012, and how do political parties pitch against each other in terms of their agenda and abilities to deal with the situation faced by the country. As it turned out, the election results sort of indirectly reflected the the points scored by each party.

 

by pakistanipoliticalscene

The World wants to see Pakistan strong

THE WORLD, INCLUDING INDIA, WANTS TO SEE PAKISTAN STRONG

The Pakistani nation suffers from conspiracy phobia that the US, Israel, India and other Western countries are enemies of Pakistan and they want to see Pakistan weak or destroyed. The religious parties, who have one agenda to make money by abusing the religion, are in the forefront of spreading this phobia. I would like to provide another perspective, which suggests to the contrary. I believe that India, Israel, US and, of course China included, want to see Pakistan economically and militarily strong for the following reasons:

  • The biggest challenge in the next 20-25 years to the world will come from India and not China.
  • India is rapidly become an economically, technologically, and militarily strong country. With over a billion population, it will pose a challenge to the world
  • Unless there is a strong deterrent on the Western border, India could potentially advance Westwards and reach the Mediterranean sea.
  • The only country that can resist India’s advance towards the West is Pakistan. If you take Pakistan out of the equation, there is no country that can provide resistance to India all the way to the Mediterranean. With over a billion population and more than 2 million plus strong army, it could be handful to the US.
  • Economically strong and nuclear Pakistan will provide a credible deterrent to India.

Why would India want a strong Pakistan?

India think tanks very well realize that the strongest of countries succumb to the temptation for expanding their borders, over extend themselves and perished in the process. This has happened throughout history. Being the only Hindu state in the world, It would like to preserve its identity and keep whatever territory it has under its control and not lose out all in its temptation to expand. So to avoid the temptation in the future, India would want to see Pakistan strong.

What are your thoughts?

by pakistanipoliticalscene

WHICH EVER WAY THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE TURNS, IMRAN KHAN WILL BE THE LOSER

I’ll start with news that aired on one of the Sikh Radio channels. The news was that that a wife was so upset at her husband, while talking to him on Skype, she committed suicide. Then the narrator went on to say that in the old days the only communication was letters. One would write letter and read it over and over again to ensure that there is nothing contained in the letter that would hurt the recipient. The he added, despite all its benefits, anything said is saved and reaches the world in an instance.

The moral of the story is that one needs to really careful in what he says, because taking back your words is not possible.

If we look at Imran Khan Speeches, rhetoric and interviews we can clearly see that:

  • He is desperate to become the Prime Minister and is trying to fool people that he has been robbed of that mandate. Even his own party disagree with that and blames poor management as main reason for loss (see rigging not possible without collusion of all candidates reps at pakistanipoliticalscene.com)
  • He has changed his stance over and over again. It is quite evident that his bowler instinct took better of him and he still thinks that he can get the prize wicket of Nawaz Sharif.
  • In the process, he has alienated himself and calls everybody in the parliament thieves.
  • For some strange reasons, he took sides with the losers. Sheikh Rashid, Chowdharys, Tahir ul Qadri, MQM and likes. He had to lick his own spit with regard to what he said about Chowdharys, MQM and Sheikh Rashid.
  • For some strange reason, I will say because he is mentally delusional, Imran Khan thinks that his summersaults get unnoticed. This is very childish and naïve thinking. Every word he said is recorded and he cannot go back on it.
  • He has been a part of an organized conspiracy (London Plan) to overthrow Nawaz Sharif.
  • He has said following things, which somebody aspiring to lead, would never say at any cost:
    1. Do money laundering
    2. Don’t pay taxes
    3. Attack police stations
    4. Kill the Prime Minister
    5. Don’t pay electricity bills
    6. Destroy public buildings, TV stations, burn parliament, PM house, Governor House etc.
    7. Incite people for a civil war.This is simply a no no in any form of politics. Leaders don’t incite violence and portray destructive mentality if they aspire to be leaders.
  • He sides with TTP, a sworn enemy of the state
  • He failed in mustering the level of support from masses for sit-in. People feel short changed for having being forced or used for a lost cause. This is the biggest setback for Imran Khan, from which he is not likely to recover. You may see people still coming to see him in rallies, but only for fun. Not serious voters.
  • Imran Khan has exposed himself of lacking the necessary support of the people to bring about any significant change.
  • He has no capacity to move on. He gets stuck on non-issues
  • There is a growing feeling that he is doing all this to divert attention from his failure to deliver Khyber in Pakhtun Khwa (KPK).

Though a lot of you may disagree, the above have made people think twice about Imran Khan’s intention and abilities to lead.

Having said that, let’s assume for argument’s sake that the government calls for midterm elections, which Imran Khan apparently wants. Then one may assume that the wheel of fortune turned as Imran Khan wanted and he would be the next Prime Minister. This is not likely to happen. He will still lose for the following reasons:

  • Nawaz Sharif will go as a martyr and a victim of a conspiracy. Remember, PMLN gained more popularity whenever his government was twice dismissed and historians and analysts agree that the election results were changed to deny victory to PMLN. This will not happen with the election reforms that are being put in place.
  • PPP, ANP, PMLN who were denied the level playing field in their campaigning will have no such hurdles any more. They will certainly fare better in all the four Provinces.
  • PMLN’s vote bank is intact. The polls suggest that he Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif are the most popular leaders today and are likely to maintain the edge over time because of their work.
  • With PPP striving to get back momentum in Sind and Punjab, ANP in KPK. PMLN already well entrenched, PTI will probably get fewer seats than before. For the last 12-14 months, PTI has followed a policy of agitation and has not shown either the capacity or the desire to work for people. It has all been self-interest of Imran Khan, who wants to become the Prime Minister.

Conversely, if the government continues, which is the most likely scenario, then it would have shown progress and likely to further consolidate gains.

The only way, Nawaz Sharif can be ousted is through the court. There is nothing substantive against Nawaz Sharif or his government. It would have to be biased decisions from the judiciary to convict Nawaz Sharif.

by pakistanipoliticalscene

Grandiose Delusion – Imran Khan and TahirulQadri suffer from this desease

Grandiose Delusions or delusion of grandeur is the fixed, false belief that one possesses superior qualities such as genius, fame, omnipotence, or wealth. It is most often a symptom of schizophrenia, but can also be a symptom found in psychotic or bipolar disorders, as well as dementia (such as Alzheimer’s).

People with a delusion of grandeur often have the conviction of having some great but unrecognized talent or insight. They may also believe they have made some important discovery that others don’t understand or appreciate.

Less commonly, the individual may have the delusion of having a special relationship with a prominent person (such as being an adviser to the President). Or the person may believe that actually are a very prominent and important person, in which case the actual person may be regarded as an imposter.

Grandiose delusions may have religious content, such as the person believes he or she has received a special message from God or another deity.

Sometimes, in popular language, this disorder may be known as “megalomania,” but is more accurately referred to as narcissistic personality disorder if it is a core component of a person’s personality and identity. In such disorders, the person has a greatly out-of-proportion sense of their own worth and value in the world. People with this issue can also sometimes have a taste for the finer, more extravagant things in life.

Sometimes drug use or abuse can intensify or bring on episodes of delusion of grandeur. People who take phencyclidine (PCP) or amphetamines are especially at risk. People who are high and experience a delusion of grandeur may be at increased risk for physically harmful behavior. For instance, if you believe you are capable of flying after taking PCP, and try to jump off a 10-story building based upon that false belief, you may be at serious risk of death.

Example: A man or woman believes she has been selected by a deity for eventual elevation to divine status; she goes around blessing people.

According to the DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria for delusional disorder, grandiose-type symptoms include grossly exaggerated belief of:

  • self-worth
  • power[5]
  • knowledge
  • identity
  • exceptional relationship to a divinityor famous person.[6]
  • For example, a patient who has fictitious beliefs about his or her power or authority may believe himself or herself to be a ruling monarch who deserves to be treated like royalty.[7] There are substantial differences in the degree of grandiosity linked with grandiose delusions in different patients. Some patients believe they are God, the Queen of England, a president’s son, a famous rock star, and so on. Others are not as expansive and think they are skilled sports-persons or great inventors.[8]

Schizophrenia Schizophrenia is a mental disorder distinguished by a loss of contact with reality and the occurrence of psychotic behaviors, including hallucinations and delusions (unreal beliefs which endure even when there is contrary evidence).[22] Delusions may include the false and constant idea that the person is being followed or poisoned, or that the person’s thoughts are being broadcast for others to listen to. Delusions in schizophrenia often develop as a response to the individual attempting to explain their hallucinations.[22] Patients who experience recurrent auditory hallucinations can develop the delusion that other people are scheming against them and are dishonest when they say they do not hear the voices that the delusioned person believes that he or she hears.[22] Specifically, grandiose delusions are frequently found predominantly in paranoid schizophrenia, in which a person has an extremely exaggerated sense of his or her significance, personality, knowledge, or authority. For example, the person may possibly declare to own IBM and kindly offer to write a hospital staff member a check for $5 million if they would only help them escape from the hospital.[23] Other common grandiose delusions in schizophrenia include religious delusions such as the belief that one is Jesus Christ.[24]

Bipolar disorder Bipolar disorder is severe affective dysregulation, or mood states that sway from exceedingly low (depression) to exceptionally high (mania).[25] Bipolar patients with grandiose delusions are essentially high on themselves. If they convey any feelings of aggravation at all, these at most characterize secondary anxiety that others will be jealous of them and hold them back from getting what they are entitled to, or seize what they already have.[26]Bipolar patients experience delusion during the worse part of their illness. Typically, when experiencing or displaying a stage of heightened excitability, joy, rage, senselessness, and correlated phenomena they might convey thoughts or beliefs that are grandiose in nature. Some of these grandiose beliefs frequently involve thoughts that the patient is very rich or famous or has super human abilities, etc.[27] In the most severe form, known as psychotic mania, the bipolar patient may hear voices and have grandiose delusions such as “I am the King of England”.[28]

Grandiose delusions are frequently and almost certainly related to lesions of the frontal lobe. Temporal lobe lesions have been mainly reported in patients with delusions of persecution and of remorse, while frontal and frontotemporal involvement have been described in patients with grandiose delusions, Cotard’s syndrome, and delusional misidentification syndrome.[29]

Compare Tahir ul Qadri and Imran Khan with the Symptoms of Grandiose Delusion and related deseases

NO Description Tahir ul Qadri Imran Khan
1 People with a delusion of grandeur often have the conviction of having some great but unrecognized talent or insight. They may also believe they have made some important discovery that others don’t understand or appreciate. Yes, Tahir ul Qadri claims to be the people who can only save people of Pakistan Yes, Imran Khan claims that he is the only person who can make new Pakistan
2 The individual may have the delusion of having a special relationship with a prominent person (such as being an adviser to the President). Or the person may believe that actually are a very prominent and important person, in which case the actual person may be regarded as an imposter. Tahir ul Qadri Claims to have a nod from the military to stage sit ins. Imran keeps saying the third umpire will raise finger suggesting that some important person is guiding him
3 Grandiose delusions may have religious content, such as the person believes he or she has received a special message from God or another deity. Tahir ul Qadri claims that he has links with the Prophet PBUH Imran Khan also claims that he is chosen to perform certain tasks.
Sometimes, in popular language, this disorder may be known as “megalomania,” but is more accurately referred to as narcissistic personality disorder if it is a core component of a person’s personality and identity. In such disorders, the person has a greatly out-of-proportion sense of their own worth and value in the world. People with this issue can also sometimes have a taste for the finer, more extravagant things in life. Tahir ul Qadri has out of proportion sense of his worth Imran Khan has out of proportion sense of his worth
4 Sometimes drug use or abuse can intensify or bring on episodes of delusion of grandeur. Tahir ul Qadri took drugs before the speech said it is for throat Some reports suggest that Imran Khan takes drugs Imran Khan goes to Bani Gala?
5 According to the DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria for delusional disorder, grandiose-type symptoms include Grossly exaggerated belief of:

  • self-worth
  • power[5]
  • knowledge
  • identity
  • exceptional relationship to a divinityor famous person.[6]

For example, a patient who has fictitious beliefs about his or her power or authority may believe himself or herself to be a ruling monarch who deserves to be treated like royalty.[7] There are substantial differences in the degree of grandiosity linked with grandiose delusions in different patients. Some patients believe they are God, the Queen of England, a president’s son, a famous rock star, and so on. Others are not as expansive and think they are skilled sports-persons or great inventors.[8]

 

 Appliyes to Tahir ul Qadri Applies to Imran Khan
6 Schizophrenia is a mental disorder distinguished by a loss of contact with reality and the occurrence of psychotic behaviors, including hallucinations and delusions (unreal beliefs which endure even when there is contrary evidence).[22] Delusions may include the false and constant idea that the person is being followed or poisoned, or that the person’s thoughts are being broadcast for others to listen to. Delusions in schizophrenia often develop as a response to the individual attempting to explain their hallucinations.[22] Patients who experience recurrent auditory hallucinations can develop the delusion that other people are scheming against them and are dishonest when they say they do not hear the voices that the delusioned person believes that he or she hears.[22]  All of it applies to Tahir ul Qadri All of it applies to Imran Khan
7 Bipolar disorder is severe affective dysregulation, or mood states that sway from exceedingly low (depression) to exceptionally high (mania).[25] Bipolar patients with grandiose delusions are essentially high on themselves. If they convey any feelings of aggravation at all, these at most characterize secondary anxiety that others will be jealous of them and hold them back from getting what they are entitled to, or seize what they already have.[26]Bipolar patients experience delusion during the worse part of their illness. Typically, when experiencing or displaying a stage of heightened excitability, joy, rage, senselessness, and correlated phenomena they might convey thoughts or beliefs that are grandiose in nature. Some of these grandiose beliefs frequently involve thoughts that the patient is very rich or famous or has super human abilities, etc.[27] In the most severe form, known as psychotic mania, the bipolar patient may hear voices and have grandiose delusions such as “I am the King of England”.[28]Grandiose delusions are frequently and almost certainly related to lesions of the frontal lobe. Temporal lobe lesions have been mainly reported in patients with delusions of persecution and of remorse, while frontal and frontotemporal involvement have been described in patients with grandiose delusions, Cotard’s syndrome, and delusional misidentification syndrome.[29] Tahir ul Qadri thinks he is the only honest person in the world with divine link to Prophet PBUH Imran Khan thinks he has super human abilities, the most honest and reliable person. He should be the Prime Minister. If he is not there Pakistan will drown.Imran Khan thinks he is the Prime Minister and talks like one

It is beyond a shadow of doubt that both Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri are mentally sick people. The decision is yours whether you should follow Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri. Adolf Hitler suffered from the same mental disorder. Look what he did to the world and Germany.

by pakistanipoliticalscene

Profiling your Opponents

Tackling your opponents is a skill that starts with profiling your opponents. I am banker by profession and had to deal with a lot of delinquent clients in my career. The starting point in dealing with them was to profile them and adopt appropriate posturing and strategy for each client.

In order to profile our clients, we profile the key decision makers and how they would react to the situation? In one case, we had to deal with a client whose owner was a goalkeeper in a club football team. What goal keepers do? They defend goals dive left & right, jump catch the ball, punch and kick to defend. So, it was given that he will try to do everything to save his company and defend his actions that brought the company down. How we got him on our side? We told him that we are not here to bring his business down but to help it resurrect. He listened and cooperated. Eventually we made him agree on what we thought will help him get out of the difficulty and reached an agreement with him. Had we adopted a strategy of hitting hard on the owner, he would have, following his natural instinct of a goal keeper, either defended or deflected our moves.

Now let’s profile PTI. It is a party that has emerged and a third largest party by Imran Khan’s effort over 18 years. He is the sole decision maker, although he has core committee, which is a consultative body that decides. Now let’s profile Imran Khan. He was a fast bowler all his life. What are natural instincts of a fast bowler?

  • He wants to bowl at you as fast as he can with a new ball.
  • He does not mind hurting you physically by bowling bouncers etc
  • He wants to get a wicket as soon as possible
  • Once he gets one wicket, he bowls faster and more furiously to get more wickets (general bowlers instinct as well)
  • When the ball gets older, he uses reverse swings, yorkers, slower, faster deliveries to deceive the batsman
  • Go after the umpires by giving them dirty looks and blaming them for not giving out
  • He never gives up. When tired, he takes rest and then bowl at you again.

In a nutshell, Imran Khan has displayed all these traits of a fast bowler. He started with 4 seats, then re-count of all seats and now resignation of the Prime Minister. He has constantly barraged people with new stuff. He keeps coming back and uses every technique to get the prized wicket of Nawaz Sharif. He has blamed umpires and the whole management for not giving him wickets and forcing a defeat on his team.

How good batsmen deal with such bowlers?

  • They leave deliveries not attacking the stumps to tire them up.
  • Defend the good ones
  • Keep hitting the loose ones.
  • Don’t throw their wickets away on bad deliveries

How did Nawaz Sharif deal with it?

He started well by not giving into Imran Kahn’s demand to investigate the four seats. He directed Imran Khan to go to the election tribunal with his grievances, because they are the competent authority to deal with election complaints.

  • Imran Khan, started the blame game and said everybody involved in the rigging. Nawaz Sharif did well to ignore these accusations. In cricketing terms, left the wide deliveries.
  • Imran Khan then started bowling threatening deliveries to hurt Nawaz Sharif, long march sit ins etc. He held rallies and threatened with a million march. In other words he started to bowl new type of deliveries. Imran Khan became more aggressive by bringing in TUQ, “WOH” and started the long march.
  • This rattled Nawaz Sharif and he gave the first chance by to Imran Khan by agreeing to investigation on 4 seats and setting up a judicial commission under Supreme Court to investigate election rigging. Nawaz Sharif should have never that given that chance. Imran Khan, sensing that he could get Nawaz Sharif out, became more aggressive.
  • After the long march, Nawaz Sharif started playing defensive by involving the third umpire to mediate on Imran Khan’s and Tahir ul Qadri’s appeals.
  • He then gave five more chances by agreeing to talk with PTI and give on 5 more points. Imran Khan got five wickets. He sensed that he can get more and started bowling aggressively ( A natural bowler’s instinct)
  • Sensing that he could get the prize wicket not by legitimate deliveries, Imran Khan started blaming the playing conditions, the biased umpires, neutrality issues and demanding voluntary retirement of Nawaz Sharif (his resignation).

What should Nawaz Sharif can do now?

  • Completely reject Imran Khan’s rigging allegations. Play aggressively
  • Retract from earlier agreements and stop negotiating with PTI. He should send Imran Khan back to the election tribunal to review individual complaints as he had done it in the past.
  • Take a more aggressive stance (play on the front foot) against Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri and:
    • Get a resolution passed in the parliament to use force against Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri to get them out of Islamabad.
    • Get the parliament to pass a law with 2/3rd majority banning all protests, dharnas in the capital city beyond one day.
  • Mobilize police, law enforcement agencies to crackdown on Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri,
  • Give three warnings to people to vacate the city. Provide transportation to the people who want to go home under police protection. If they do not leave, then crack down on them. Enough is enough.
  • Arrest Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri for creating law and order situation. Proceed with the cases against them in the courts under the terrorist act,
  • Carry out the reforms through the Election Reform Committee.
  • Not allow any in subordination of the government institution.

What should Imran Khan do?

  • His dharna has become counterproductive. He should call it off and claim victory, which it is, because he has got 5 out of six demands met.
  • He should go back to doing good work in KPK Province and damage control in Punjab & other Provinces
  • Get back to sitting with the main stream political parties and friends to get them on their side
  • Withdraw resignations of MNAs and work in the parliament.
  • Try and remove the perception that he is against the military operations in North Waziristan.
  • Play positive politics and work with government on development projects that are good for the country.
  • Disassociate completely from Tahir ul Qadri.
  • Re-organize PTI and prepare for the next elections, which are three and half years from now. I believe that Imran Khan still have his followers and he should not lose them because of immature politics. His supporters are getting disgruntled.

 

by pakistanipoliticalscene

Conspiracy Theory; Minus One Could Mean PTI minus Imran Khan?

This is based on the unfolding events in the last three months. The theory is only intuitive with no input or information from any person or any agency.

If we look at the events in the since March 2014, we see that Imran Khan has taken a more aggressive stance against the government than ever before. It started from 4 seats and now it has come down to Nawaz Sharif’s resignation. We all know that forcing an elected PM to resign is unconstitutional and tantamount to treason. The only way the PM is asked to go is through the parliament vote of no confidence or by a voluntary resignation. The PM has made it clear that he will not resign voluntarily, at least that is his position as of now

Now lets get back to a conspiracy theory that hidden hands want PTI minus Imran. Why would they want that? The reasons could be as follows:

  • Imran Khan is known to have links with Taliban and he holds a soft corner for them. In 2013 elections, while the other party rallies and corner meetings were threatened to be bombed by TTP, PTI’s rallies were supported by TTP. As such, Imran Khan got an unfair advantage of getting an unchallenged ground for campaigning during 2013 elections, which cost some loss of seat for Awami National Party (ANP) in KPK and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in all the four Provinces.
  • Buoyed by the success of operations in South Waziristan (SW), the Armed Forces wanted to conduct similar operation in North Waziristan (NW). Kiyani, however, thought that talks were a better option. Imran Khan did not support army action and protested against it.
  • After Kiyani left, the new Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) decided to go for the military operation and deal with Taliban once and for all. Imran Khan is considered an impediment to the successful completion of the military campaign against TTP and the following key factors for the success of military operation:
    1. A go ahead and an unequivocal support from the government, which army finally got from, initially reluctant, Nawaz Sharif’s government. If Imran Khan comes to power this support could be withdrawn
    2. Remove, as far as possible, the tacit support of the political parties like Jammat e Islami (JI), Jammiat e Ulema e Islam (JUI), Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) and likes.
    3. To make it a longer-term endeavor, possibly lasting a decade to clear the region of Taleban and establish a complete government’s administrative writ.
    4. In order to do that, Taleban and their supporters are not be allowed to get a foothold in North and South Waziristan again.
    5. Southern Punjab and Karachi are the next targets against which the operation is likely to start in the next few months, possibly in the winter.
  • While JI & JUI gave their open support to the military operations, PTI does not support the military action in NW. Instead, Imran Khan started complaining about the displaced persons and used it as an excuse to demonize the military operation.
  • Imran Khan’s demeanor in this regard clearly showed that his sympathies lie with Taleban and he cannot be trusted with regard to his loyalties with army and the military operation.
  • Hence, it is considered, in the best interest of the country that Imran Khan is neutralized for good. Of course, he could be assassinated, but this route is never advisable until other options are exhausted.

With this backdrop, It may have been decided:

  • To isolate Imran Khan politically
  • To use him to discredit all institutions. Use abusive language. Harp about unsubstantiated allegations
  • Stage a long march and sit in, take over the Parliament House, the PM Secretariat, cross into the red zone and create law and order situation, as we saw recently.
  • Create reasons to file criminal cases against him under the terrorist act. Remember, how quickly the cases were registered against Imran and Tahir ul Qadri – essentially in 2 days after the incidence.
  • Create a dissent in the party, remove him from the party leadership and then get him convicted or sent in exile. The partial resignation of MNAs only was used as one tool to create dissent. The party President, who is probably the most respected politician in the country, publicly disowned Imran Khan’s action to move into red zone and bring into knowledge public the “Woh kehtay hain” theory. Every body dislikes any association with “Woh” hence further loss of reputation politically and strengthened belief among the general population that PTI has ISI support, which is also not appreciated.
  • Have Imran Khan meet with the COAS to show the third umpire neutrality. Remember after this meeting, Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri entered the red zone.
  • Bring out in the open the unholy alliance between PAT and PTI to further damage PTI’s image. Imran Khan, who initially planned the long march and sit in on his own, was given to understand that he would need some die hards to achieve his long march and sit in objectives and that TUQ can only provide that. Hence this unholy alliance was struck in London.
  • Encourage Imran Khan to make increasingly unacceptable demands; the real non-starter among them is PM’s resignation.
  • Allow Imran and TUQ continue a sit in until the postponement of all important visit of the Chinese President was the final nail in the coffin and will have broad and long-lasting implications on Imran Khan.

All of the above actions and some more, that are not mentioned here, have now isolated Imran Khan – both within his own party and politically.

Now where can things go from here?

  • It is quite likely that a vote of no confidence is moved in Khyber Pakhtoon Khwa (KPK) against the Chief Minister to topple his government
  • A criminal proceeding to start against Imran Khan for inciting violence, damage to the property, asking Pakistanis not to pay taxes, do money laundering, civil disobedience etc. There is evidence to easily convict him for life, disqualify him to run a political part and having anything to do with the politics.
  • The final delivery, as Imran Khan puts it, could be a Yorker that will bowl him out from the politics and spend the rest of his life in jail or in London like Altaf Hussain.

 

 

 

Mohammad Masood

Political Analyst and an Economist

by pakistanipoliticalscene

United States – The Conspirator

I have been hearing conspiracy theories in Pakistan about the United States (US) being the conspirator in the recent events. I must say that the Pakistanis tend to believe in the conspiracy theories more than any other nation in the world. It is beyond me to comprehend why this is the case why we have lost an ability to take things at face value? In the process, we have made our friends our enemies. In particular, there is a great degree of mistrust against the US. Even if the US says we would like to see a stable Pakistan, we take it as if the US wants to destroy Pakistan. I don’t really understand why?

These days the most talked about conspiracy theory is that the US is unhappy over Pakistan’s close relationship with China and their investment in Pakistan, therefore, this attempt to topple the government and create upheaval. Let’s step back and take a dispassionate view on this theory my take on this is as follows:

1)      The US wants to see a stable, strong and prosperous Pakistan. The reasons are:

    • Pakistan is an only country which can pose resistance to Indian onslaught towards the West. India has now started to flex its muscles and the US knows that India is quickly developing a capacity and has a desire to extend its expansion towards its West. At some stage, India could move to extend its reach from the Far East to the Mediterranean. This is not in the interest of the world and the balance in the Region.
    • Pakistan, in spite of its somewhat chequered relationship with the US, has been the most trusted ally. It is only Pakistan that can credibly fight against TTP and nobody else in the world can do that. The US and NATO failed to do so in the last 10 years during which time Indians was their main advisors.
    • Pakistan has a more capacity than India to fight terrorism in the Region. Indian advisory role to the US and NATO failed.
    • India has been playing a double game in Afghanistan with the US and that Pakistan has unfairly suffered the most in the war against Terror.
    • Weak Pakistan will lead to its breakup and could trigger an uncontrollable civil war in the Nuclear State – genuine concern for the World and Pakistan.

2)      The US wants the Chinese influence on Pakistan to increase. Against a general perception among the experts and the pundits that The US wants to see the Chinese investment and influence to reduce, I believe in the contrary. The US would like the Chines influence over Pakistan to remain and increase. The reasons are:

    • In the years to come, Pakistan’s ability to contain India must be maintained. This is only possible if Pakistan becomes economically and militarily strong, which it cannot become until it develops infrastructure quickly.
    • The US ability to provide billions of dollars through its own assistance program or through the donor agencies is limited; hence it has encouraged the Chinese to do that. The Chinese has less red tape.
    • In order for the Chinese to have a credible presence in the Gulf and the Road and Rail link from China to Gwadar is essential. The US wants that.
    • The development of this road and rail links corridor will also allow Pakistan to develop the North and South Waziristan, which would provide a major impetus to the people of the Region to get involved productively and reduce radicalism and drug menace etc.
    • Presently, the US is the only country that is doing the policing job in the World. It wants China to share some of the role, particularly in South Asia, Middle East and Africa. Leasing and development of Gawadar Port, the road and rail link from China to Gawadar are to assist Chines get the logistic support to achieve that.

As Pakistanis, we blame the US for all our shortcomings. There is no doubt it is the stated policy of the US that its interest comes first, but it is true for every other country. The only difference is that the US says that openly. There is no such thing as acting out of love for others in the World. We are naïve to think that China helps out of love of our country. The relationships are built on costs and benefits.  It is my earnest request and a hope that we stop mistrusting and badmouthing the US and take it on the face value when the US says that it wants a strong and prosperous Pakistan. My take is that the US is not our enemy. The US is one of our friends.