I’ll start with news that aired on one of the Sikh Radio channels. The news was that that a wife was so upset at her husband, while talking to him on Skype, she committed suicide. Then the narrator went on to say that in the old days the only communication was letters. One would write letter and read it over and over again to ensure that there is nothing contained in the letter that would hurt the recipient. The he added, despite all its benefits, anything said is saved and reaches the world in an instance.
The moral of the story is that one needs to really careful in what he says, because taking back your words is not possible.
If we look at Imran Khan Speeches, rhetoric and interviews we can clearly see that:
- He is desperate to become the Prime Minister and is trying to fool people that he has been robbed of that mandate. Even his own party disagree with that and blames poor management as main reason for loss (see rigging not possible without collusion of all candidates reps at pakistanipoliticalscene.com)
- He has changed his stance over and over again. It is quite evident that his bowler instinct took better of him and he still thinks that he can get the prize wicket of Nawaz Sharif.
- In the process, he has alienated himself and calls everybody in the parliament thieves.
- For some strange reasons, he took sides with the losers. Sheikh Rashid, Chowdharys, Tahir ul Qadri, MQM and likes. He had to lick his own spit with regard to what he said about Chowdharys, MQM and Sheikh Rashid.
- For some strange reason, I will say because he is mentally delusional, Imran Khan thinks that his summersaults get unnoticed. This is very childish and naïve thinking. Every word he said is recorded and he cannot go back on it.
- He has been a part of an organized conspiracy (London Plan) to overthrow Nawaz Sharif.
- He has said following things, which somebody aspiring to lead, would never say at any cost:
- Do money laundering
- Don’t pay taxes
- Attack police stations
- Kill the Prime Minister
- Don’t pay electricity bills
- Destroy public buildings, TV stations, burn parliament, PM house, Governor House etc.
- Incite people for a civil war.This is simply a no no in any form of politics. Leaders don’t incite violence and portray destructive mentality if they aspire to be leaders.
- He sides with TTP, a sworn enemy of the state
- He failed in mustering the level of support from masses for sit-in. People feel short changed for having being forced or used for a lost cause. This is the biggest setback for Imran Khan, from which he is not likely to recover. You may see people still coming to see him in rallies, but only for fun. Not serious voters.
- Imran Khan has exposed himself of lacking the necessary support of the people to bring about any significant change.
- He has no capacity to move on. He gets stuck on non-issues
- There is a growing feeling that he is doing all this to divert attention from his failure to deliver Khyber in Pakhtun Khwa (KPK).
Though a lot of you may disagree, the above have made people think twice about Imran Khan’s intention and abilities to lead.
Having said that, let’s assume for argument’s sake that the government calls for midterm elections, which Imran Khan apparently wants. Then one may assume that the wheel of fortune turned as Imran Khan wanted and he would be the next Prime Minister. This is not likely to happen. He will still lose for the following reasons:
- Nawaz Sharif will go as a martyr and a victim of a conspiracy. Remember, PMLN gained more popularity whenever his government was twice dismissed and historians and analysts agree that the election results were changed to deny victory to PMLN. This will not happen with the election reforms that are being put in place.
- PPP, ANP, PMLN who were denied the level playing field in their campaigning will have no such hurdles any more. They will certainly fare better in all the four Provinces.
- PMLN’s vote bank is intact. The polls suggest that he Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif are the most popular leaders today and are likely to maintain the edge over time because of their work.
- With PPP striving to get back momentum in Sind and Punjab, ANP in KPK. PMLN already well entrenched, PTI will probably get fewer seats than before. For the last 12-14 months, PTI has followed a policy of agitation and has not shown either the capacity or the desire to work for people. It has all been self-interest of Imran Khan, who wants to become the Prime Minister.
Conversely, if the government continues, which is the most likely scenario, then it would have shown progress and likely to further consolidate gains.
The only way, Nawaz Sharif can be ousted is through the court. There is nothing substantive against Nawaz Sharif or his government. It would have to be biased decisions from the judiciary to convict Nawaz Sharif.